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Break-Even Probability

Find the minimum hit probability required when an attempt has a known cost and a stated net profit if successful.

What this tells youHow often would this need to succeed to cover the downside?
Example loaded. Change the values below to match what you are evaluating.
Result — Example values are ready — adjust them, then calculate.

Use only when the cost and net-success value are defined consistently. It does not estimate the true probability for you.